Khamenei Is Dead—Iran’s Regime in Question. What Comes Next for North Korea?

Khamenei’s death and the demonstration of U.S. political will for regime change have not only reshaped Iran’s future, but also forced North Korean elites to reconsider whether loyalty to Kim Jong Un truly guarantees their own survival.

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Iran’s long-time Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed as the United States and Israeli forces launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran on February 28.

It was a great shock to the world. But the shock felt by Kim Jong Un and his elites would have been far greater.

For decades, authoritarian regimes like Iran and North Korea operated under a shared assumption: that the geopolitical costs of decapitating a regime leader were simply too high for Washington to bear.

But it happened under President Trump.

Not only was the dictator killed; Trump signaled that it seeks regime change in Iran through decapitation. Trump pressured the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, the military, and the police to surrender in exchange for full immunity—or face “certain death.” At the same time, he encouraged the Iranian people to take back their country.

As the war continues, the survival of the Iranian regime in its current form appears increasingly uncertain. The implications for North Korea could be profound.

Many experts say that Kim will now cling even more tightly to his nuclear weapons for survival. This is true, but it does not tell the whole story.

It is clear that Kim Jong Un’s long-standing strategy—to leverage nuclear weapons as a tool for negotiation with Washington—has become far more complicated after the Iran case.

Watching the Trump administration embrace such a radical method as regime decapitation, North Korean elites cannot avoid deeper reflection about their own fate. A troubling question inevitably arises: "Can Kim Jong Un truly guarantee our survival?"

Cohesion within the elite has already been deeply strained by economic stagnation, sanctions fatigue, and growing uncertainty over succession. The recent radical leadership reshuffle at the Ninth Party Congress exposed just how fragile that cohesion has become.

Against this backdrop, this incident could further erode elite confidence in their leader and accelerate fractures that were already forming within the regime.

Of course, it would be more difficult for the United States to launch the same kind of military action against North Korea, given its proximity to China and Russia. However, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently noted during a press briefing that U.S. efforts to address Iran’s nuclear ambitions would send “plenty of signals,” responding to criticism from North Korea and China.

Furthermore, Washington does not need to replicate the Iranian model militarily to address the Kim regime and its nuclear threats. Sustained economic, political, and psychological pressure can destabilize the regime from within—without a single shot being fired.

What matters most is that the Trump administration has demonstrated something far more consequential than military capability. It has demonstrated political will for regime change.

For North Korean elites, this changes the calculation. What once seemed guaranteed no longer feels certain. Watching Khamenei and senior Iranian officials killed, they may begin to prioritize their own survival over unquestioned loyalty to the regime.