Khamenei Is Dead, Regime Change Is Underway in Iran—What Comes Next for North Korea?

Khamenei’s death and the clear demonstration of U.S. political will for regime change have not only reshaped Iran’s future, but also forced North Korean elites to reconsider whether loyalty to Kim Jong Un truly guarantees their own survival.

Iran’s long-time Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed as the United States and Israeli forces launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran on February 28.

It was a great shock to the world. But the shock that Kim Jong Un and his elites received would have been incomparable.

For decades, authoritarian regimes like Iran and North Korea operated under a shared assumption: that the geopolitical costs of decapitating a regime leader were simply too high for Washington to bear.

But it happened under President Trump.

Not only was the dictator killed; the Trump administration clearly signaled that it seeks regime change in Iran through decapitation. Trump pressured the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, the military, and the police to surrender in exchange for full immunity—or face “certain death.” At the same time, he encouraged the Iranian people to take back their country.

Even as the war continues, the collapse of the Iranian regime now appears increasingly plausible. For North Korea, the implications are profound.

Many experts say that Kim will now cling even more tightly to his nuclear weapons for survival. This is true, but that is not the whole story.

It is clear that Kim Jong Un’s long-standing strategy—to leverage nuclear weapons as a tool for negotiation with Washington—has become far more complicated after the Iran case.

Cohesion within the elite has already been deeply strained by economic stagnation, sanctions fatigue, and growing uncertainty over succession. The recent radical leadership reshuffle at the Ninth Party Congress exposed just how fragile that cohesion has become.

Against this backdrop, this incident could further erode elite confidence in their leader and accelerate fractures that were already forming within the regime.

Of course, it is unlikely that the United States would launch the same kind of military action against North Korea, given its proximity to China and Russia. However, Washington does not need to replicate the Iranian model militarily to induce regime collapse in Pyongyang. Sustained economic, political, and psychological pressure can destabilize the regime from within—without a single shot being fired.

What matters most is that the Trump administration has demonstrated something far more consequential than military capability. It has demonstrated political will for regime change.