The Paradox of North Korea's Military Buildup
North Korea’s rapid military buildup, intended to strengthen Kim Jong Un’s leverage over Washington and secure his regime’s survival, could instead provoke stronger deterrence and economic pressure from the United States and its allies, ultimately accelerating the regime’s downfall.
North Korea is rapidly advancing its military capabilities, developing increasingly sophisticated nuclear missiles, submarine-launched weapons, and now AI-guided torpedoes.
On October 17, North Korea announced that it had successfully tested a new high-speed precision-guided torpedo, known as the Zam-2.0, which Pyongyang claims uses artificial intelligence for target detection and guidance.
The announcement followed a series of recent developments in its naval and strategic weapons programs, including submarine-launched cruise missile tests.
These developments reflect Kim Jong Un's determination to strengthen North Korea's military capabilities and expand its strategic leverage against the United States.
Kim may believe that possessing increasingly advanced weapons will eventually convince Washington that accepting Pyongyang's nuclear status and negotiating sanctions relief would be preferable to confrontation.
But this strategy produces precisely the opposite effect. The more sophisticated and threatening North Korea's weapons become, the more likely Washington and its allies are to view the regime as an increasingly dangerous adversary.
President Trump, in particular, is not one to yield to threats from adversaries. Rather, he has demonstrated a willingness to respond with overwhelming military force or economic pressure when he perceives a serious threat to U.S. national security, even at the risk of bringing down the regime itself.
There is also bipartisan concern in the U.S. Congress over North Korea's growing military threat. A recent bipartisan Senate bill seeking to reaffirm America's extended nuclear deterrence commitments to South Korea and other allies illustrates the continuing pressure for a firm response to Pyongyang's weapons buildup.
Japan has also taken a firm stance against North Korea's growing nuclear and missile threats. In her September 22 UN General Assembly address, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called for North Korea's complete denuclearization and full implementation of UN Security Council resolutions.
On the military front, the United States and Japan launched their largest-ever Keen Sword military exercise on October 19, bringing together approximately 45,000 Japanese Self-Defense Force personnel and 12,000 U.S. service members. The exercise underscores the allies' commitment to strengthening military readiness and deterrence amid growing regional security threats, particularly from China and North Korea.
Rather than encouraging concessions, Pyongyang's military advances are likely to prompt stronger deterrence, tighter sanctions enforcement, and greater diplomatic and economic pressure from the United States and its allies.
Yet Kim Jong Un cannot abandon his pursuit of military power, as it is central to maintaining domestic legitimacy and control. Military achievements help reinforce his authority, strengthen loyalty among military and party elites, and justify continued sacrifices by the population in the name of national security.
Trapped in this strategic paradox, Kim Jong Un may ultimately find that the very weapons he develops to ensure his regime's survival could instead accelerate its downfall.
