While direct U.S. military regime change in North Korea is unlikely due to its proximity to China and Russia, news of Maduro’s capture could rapidly erode the perception of regime invincibility among North Korean elites, military officers, and ordinary citizens.
The capture of Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on January 6 shook the international community. It was an unprecedented military operation by the United States against a dictator considered a serious threat to U.S. national security. Maduro and his wife are now facing federal criminal charges in Manhattan, New York.
The following day, North Korea strongly condemned the U.S. operation, calling the capture of Maduro "the most serious form of encroachment of sovereignty.
The Kim regime’s response is understandable. Despite geographic differences, North Korea is heading down a path similar to Venezuela’s. Kim Jong Un’s fear that his regime could be toppled by the U.S. is real—and in Venezuela, he saw how that fear could come to reality.
However, it is unlikely that the United States would pursue regime change in North Korea through a military operation similar to Venezuela’s, mainly due to North Korea’s proximity to China and Russia. Nevertheless, the capture of Maduro clearly demonstrates the Trump administration’s willingness to confront its adversaries—even through regime change—once its patience is exhausted.
Moreover, in the case of North Korea, regime change does not require direct military intervention. As discussed in a previous post, a Second Reagan Doctrine offers alternative pathways for regime change through political, economic, and informational pressure. It only depends on whether the Kim regime crosses the red lines set by the Trump administration.
There is also a critical internal dimension. News of Maduro’s capture—whether through foreign broadcasts, elite channels, or informal networks—can spread beyond Pyongyang’s information controls.
Among North Korean elites, military officers, and ordinary citizens, such news can rapidly erode the perception of regime invincibility. As North Korea already faces severe economic hardship, food insecurity, and growing internal discontent, this information could further undermine elite confidence and fuel latent instability.
After witnessing Maduro’s capture, Kim Jong Un is likely to deepen North Korea’s military and diplomatic ties with Russia and China while accelerating its nuclear weapons program for self-defense. This trajectory will increasingly clash with U.S. national security interests, particularly as internal instability in North Korea deepens and Kim’s sense of insecurity grows.
The Venezuelan case offers a sobering lesson for authoritarian regimes: time does not inherently favor dictators. And for Kim Jong Un, that realization may be the most destabilizing consequence of all.
