Will Trump and Kim Reunite? Trump Is Willing, but Kim Isn’t

Key Insights

• Trump Wants to Reopen Talks – Trump is open to direct diplomacy with Kim Jong Un, citing past successes and reports of his team considering new negotiations.

  
  

• Kim Likely to Refuse – After the failed 2019 Hanoi summit, stronger ties with Russia, and reliance on anti-U.S. rhetoric, Kim has little incentive to re-engage.

  
  

• Trump’s Approach: Pressure Over Talks – Given Kim's insistence on following his own path, Trump's second-term strategy will likely focus on economic sanctions and military deterrence rather than diplomacy.

  
  

• North Korea’s Future is Unstable – Increasing economic struggles, internal dissatisfaction, and global isolation could weaken Kim’s regime or lead to its collapse.

With Donald Trump securing a landslide victory in the historic U.S. presidential election, the question of his approach to North Korea has resurfaced. Given his previous personal diplomacy with Kim Jong Un, including high-profile summits, speculation abounds about whether Trump and Kim will meet again. While Trump himself appears open to the idea, the reality suggests otherwise—North Korea’s dictator is unlikely to reengage.

Trump’s Intentions: A Renewed Attempt at Diplomacy?

There are multiple indicators that Trump may attempt another round of direct diplomacy with Kim. During his Republican nomination acceptance speech in July, Trump reminisced about his past relationship with Kim, stating, “I got along very well with him. We stopped the missile launches from North Korea. Now North Korea is acting up again. When we get back, I get along with him. He’d like to see me back, too. I think he misses me.” His remarks highlight his belief in personal diplomacy and suggest he may seek renewed dialogue with Pyongyang.

Further reinforcing this possibility, Reuters recently reported that Trump’s team is considering direct talks with Kim to mitigate the risks of military escalation. Such an approach aligns with Trump’s unconventional style of diplomacy, favoring personal rapport over traditional negotiations.

Why Kim Won’t Play Along

Despite Trump’s apparent willingness to engage, Kim is unlikely to respond to Trump's overture due to three main reasons:

1. The Trauma of the Hanoi Summit Kim suffered significant humiliation when Trump abruptly walked away from the 2019 Hanoi summit without a deal. That failure was deeply damaging, not only diplomatically but also internally. Reports indicate that Kim executed high-ranking officials involved in the negotiations, signaling the depth of his embarrassment. Having been burned once, Kim is unlikely to risk another public failure.

   
   

2. A Strengthened Hand with Russia Unlike in Trump’s first term, North Korea now has a stronger geopolitical position. Pyongyang has significantly advanced its nuclear capabilities and solidified a military alliance with Russia. Through increased economic and military cooperation, Kim believes he can circumvent U.S.-led sanctions and achieve strategic goals without engaging with Washington. In his view, direct talks with Trump no longer offer a necessary or beneficial path forward.

   
   

3. The Need to Maintain Anti-U.S. Sentiment Domestically, Kim relies on anti-American rhetoric to maintain control over his people. The North Korean regime faces growing discontent, particularly regarding reports of North Korean troops being sent to Russia. If casualties mount, dissatisfaction within the military could increase, posing a direct threat to his rule. To counter this risk, Kim must continue portraying the U.S. as an existential enemy. Engaging in talks with Trump would undermine this narrative and risk destabilizing his grip on power.

   
   

Kim himself confirmed this stance at the opening of the “National Defense Development-2024” arms exhibition, where he stated, “We have already gone to every length in negotiations with the U.S., and what was certain from the outcome was ... the unchanging invasive and hostile policy toward North Korea.” These words underscore his regime’s strategic shift away from negotiations toward bolstering military capabilities.

The Future of Trump’s North Korea Policy

As North Korea continues on a course detrimental to U.S. national interests, Trump's policy for a second term is anticipated to focus on exerting maximum pressure through economic sanctions and military deterrence.

Furthermore, the international community, including NATO nations, is increasingly aligned against North Korea due to its support for Russia. This shift could result in unprecedented economic and diplomatic isolation for Pyongyang, increasing internal instability. If economic pressure continues to mount and internal dissent grows, North Korea’s regime may face an existential crisis sooner than anticipated.

Conclusion: No Trump-Kim Reconciliation

While the notion of another Trump-Kim summit might attract political commentators, it is quite unlikely in reality. Kim's profound distrust of Trump, his strategic shift towards Russia, and his necessity to uphold anti-American sentiment make renewed diplomatic efforts improbable. At the same time, Trump's administration will be preoccupied with more urgent priorities, pushing North Korea to the sidelines of U.S. foreign policy.

Instead of personal diplomacy, Trump’s second-term approach will likely focus on economic and military pressure. As North Korea faces growing internal discontent and international isolation, the regime’s survival will become increasingly precarious. If these pressures intensify, the end of the Kim regime may not be a question of if, but when.

Author: B.J. Choi, founder of NVNK, obtained his Master's degree in Asian Studies from the George Washington University. He previously worked for the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (WWICS) on North Korea issues.