Will Trump and Kim Meet Again? Trump Might Want to, but Not Kim

The historic U.S. Presidential election concluded with Trump's landslide win. Now, many North Korea watchers are wondering about Trump's North Korea policy: Will Trump and Kim meet again?

There are a few indications that Trump is likely to do so, including his remark about Kim during his acceptance speech as the Republican nominee in July. Trump said, “I got along very well with him (Kim Jong Un). I got along with them and we stopped the missile launches from North Korea. Now North Korea is acting up again. When we get back, I get along with him. He'd like to see me back, too. I think he misses me.”

A recent Reuters report has reinforced the possibility of Trump engaging directly with Kim. According to Reuters, Trump's team is considering direct talks with Kim to reduce the risks of military conflict.

However, the answer is that Trump might want to, but not Kim. Here's why.

Firstly, Kim personally does not want to negotiate with Trump again. He felt deeply embarrassed and humiliated on a global scale due to Trump's refusal to make a deal during the 2019 Hanoi summit. The level of shame and humiliation Kim endured was nearly unbearable, leading him to reportedly execute high-ranking officials in charge of the negotiations immediately following the summit's breakdown. Kim is not likely to risk repeating the same failure that severely damaged his credibility as a leader among his own people.

Secondly, Kim no longer needs to negotiate with Trump for his country's breakthrough. Unlike during Trump's first term, North Korea now possesses more advanced nuclear weapons, backed by a newly strengthened military alliance with Russia. Through increased military and economic cooperation with Russia, Kim believes that he can circumvent U.S.-led sanctions and pursue his own way without negotiating with the U.S.

Thirdly, Kim is unable to negotiate with Trump, because he needs to uphold anti-U.S. sentiment among his own people as a means of controlling them. Currently, the Kim regime is making every effort to quell growing discontent among its citizens and military, especially regarding the deployment of its troops to Russia. Kim is highly concerned about the potential spread of casualty reports that could incite an uprising or military coup. Escalating military tensions with the U.S. and South Korea is the only way Kim can retain control of his people at this point.

As evidence, at the opening ceremony of an arms exhibition titled, "National Defense Development-2024," Kim said, "We have already gone to every length in negotiations with the U.S., and what was certain from the outcome was ... the unchanging invasive and hostile policy toward North Korea ... In light of this reality, (North Korea) realizes every day and every hour that achieving the most powerful military capabilities is the only way to maintain peace and provides a solid guarantee of security and development."

Beside Kim's unwillingness to meet Trump, addressing North Korea issues will not be a top concern for a new Trump administration. There are numerous pressing domestic issues that Trump must tackle, such as high inflation, illegal immigration, culture wars like gender issues, education reform, and more.

Even in terms of foreign policy, trade and tariffs will take precedence in the second Trump administration. And the Russian-Ukraine war and the conflict in the Middle East will require much more attention and energy from Trump's foreign policy team than North Korea issues.

Then what can we expect from Trump 2.0 regarding its North Korea policy?

In the second term, Trump's North Korea policy is expected to remain consistent with the first term, focusing on maximum sanctions, with the exception of the summits with Kim. Additionally, the enhanced trilateral alliance between the U.S., Japan, and South Korea under the Biden administration and the Yoon administration will persist to exert pressure on China and North Korea.

While there are concerns about Trump potentially renegotiating the expenses related to U.S. troops in South Korea, this is unlikely to undermine the U.S.-South Korea alliance, especially under the Yoon administration. Unlike the previous Moon administration, the Yoon administration puts a strong priority on U.S.-South Korea relations in terms of dealing with the Kim regime. Additionally, there are other areas of potential collaboration between the two nations, such as shipbuilding that Trump and Yoon briefly discussed in a recent phone conversation.

One of the significant factors that caused Trump to decide to meet with Kim in hopes of successful negotiation lies in former South Korean President Moon's efforts to bring these two leaders together. Moon tried to convince Trump and leaders of other nations that Kim Jong Un and his regime did not pose a threat to the world. However, under the Yoon administration, knowing the true intent and nature of the Kim regime, there will be no nuclear talks between the two Koreas as well as between the U.S. and North Korea.

Under the second Trump administration, we may see unprecedented maximum pressure on North Korea, coordinated by the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and the international community, including NATO nations, as North Korea poses significant threats to global peace through its troop deployment to Russia. If so, along with rising discontent among the North Korean people against their dictator, we may see the end of the Kim regime within a few years or even sooner.

Author: B.J. Choi, founder of NVNK, obtained his Master's degree in Asian Studies from the George Washington University. He previously worked for the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (WWICS) on North Korea issues.