North Korea opened its once-every-five-years party congress touting economic progress, but persistent sanctions, structural stagnation, and early succession signaling will likely deepen elite uncertainty and strain internal cohesion.

North Korea’s pre–party congress rocket test and pledge to expand its nuclear deterrent signal that Kim Jong Un is preparing more provocations going forward—not from confidence, but from deepening insecurity, having watched sanctioned regimes like Iran and Venezuela begin to fall under U.S. pressure.