Kim Jong Un’s Nuclear Desperation Ahead of Party Congress

North Korea’s pre–party congress rocket test and pledge to expand its nuclear deterrent signal that Kim Jong Un is preparing more provocations going forward—not from confidence, but from deepening insecurity, having watched sanctioned regimes like Iran and Venezuela begin to fall under U.S. pressure.

North Korea tested an upgraded large-caliber rocket launcher system on Jan. 27, with rockets hitting targets about 358.5 km away, ahead of its ruling party congress.

North Korean state media quoted Kim Jong Un saying the congress will lay out the next-stage plans to further strengthen the country’s nuclear deterrent.

This is a classic military act intended to bolster internal legitimacy ahead of the party congress. However, this year, Kim Jong Un appears more desperate than ever before.

Under U.S.-led international sanctions, North Korea’s economy has been significantly eroding. Kim has seen how other rogue regimes facing similar pressure—such as Iran—have shown severe systemic strain.

He has also watched how the Venezuelan dictator was captured in a swift U.S. military operation.

Kim must demonstrate to his own people—especially party officials—that the regime has a way to break through this crisis, unlike Venezuela and Iran. If he fails, he knows his regime could meet the same fate as other collapsing regimes.

That is why he emphasized plans to strengthen the regime’s nuclear deterrent at the upcoming party congress.

Under these unraveling internal circumstances, the Kim regime is likely to adopt a more hostile and offensive posture—especially against South Korea—in an effort to control its own people.