Kim Jong Un’s Endgame: Forced Reunification Backed by Russia

Explore what Kim Jong Un ultimately seeks to achieve through his growing alliance with Russia

Key Insights

• Kim Jong Un has deepened ties with Russia, sending 15,000 troops to Ukraine and securing military and economic support through a mutual defense pact.

  
  

• His shift began after the failed 2019 Hanoi summit, when he realized the U.S. wouldn’t meet his demands—even with South Korea’s support.

  
  

• Kim’s true goal is reunification by force, as revealed in his 2023 declaration abandoning peaceful unification and calling for the occupation of the South.

  
  

• Losing the ideological battle to South Korean influence, Kim now depends on Russian-backed military power—tactical nukes, drones, and missiles—to change the balance on the Peninsula.

  
  

• If Seoul and its allies fail to grasp the full scope of Kim’s ambitions, they may soon find themselves confronting not just provocation—but a full-scale conflict.

Kim Jong Un has gone all-in on his alliance with Russia. In a recent congratulatory message to Vladimir Putin for Russia Day, Kim called North Korea’s relationship with Russia an “indestructible, genuine” alliance between comrades-in-arms. His remarks came just ahead of the first anniversary of a mutual defense pact signed last year—an agreement that commits both countries to provide immediate military assistance if either is attacked. Since October, North Korea has reportedly dispatched around 15,000 troops to support Russian forces in war against Ukraine.

Why Is Kim Betting Everything on His Alliance with Russia?

The roots of this strategic shift go back to the collapse of the 2019 Hanoi summit with Donald Trump. Even with the full backing of South Korea’s pro-engagement president Moon Jae-in, Kim realized he could neither sway Washington nor secure the concessions he desperately sought. The message was clear: the United States could not—or would not—give him what he wanted. A recent report even revealed that North Korean diplomats at the U.N. bluntly rejected Trump’s personal letter to Kim.

In return for sacrificing thousands of North Korean soldiers, Kim has gained critical lifelines: economic aid, advanced military technology, and renewed geopolitical leverage. But this is about more than survival. Kim’s ultimate ambition is to reunify the Korean Peninsula by force—under his control—within his lifetime.

That ambition was laid bare during the 9th Plenum of the 8th Central Committee in December 2023. There, Kim declared a “two-state hostile policy” and formally abandoned the goal of peaceful reunification. At the Supreme People’s Assembly in January 2024, he went further:

Why Kim Must Pursue Reunification by Force

Some may argue that North Korea lacks the capacity to forcibly reunify the Peninsula—and that such an attempt would be suicidal. But Kim Jong Un sees no alternative. The ideological foundations of his regime are rapidly eroding under the current two-state status quo. The influx of South Korean culture and outside information has profoundly reshaped the minds of North Koreans—especially the younger generation—significantly weakening the regime’s ideological control. By declaring the South a principal enemy state and severing all inter-Korean ties, Kim effectively admitted that he is losing the ideological war.

He is left with one path for his survival: military dominance on the Korean Peninsula. That’s why North Korea has shifted into full-scale war planning, prioritizing the development of tactical nuclear weapons, drones, and advanced missile systems. Crucially, Kim believes he can achieve this goal with Russia’s backing. With direct military assistance from Moscow, North Korea’s weapons programs have accelerated at an alarming pace—threatening to shift the balance of power on the Korean Peninsula.

This unsettling reality was confirmed by Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Chief, Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, in a June 7 interview with The War Zone. He said that Russia is helping North Korea develop long-range kamikaze drones and improve the precision of its KN-23 ballistic missiles. Moscow is also assisting Pyongyang in producing Shahed-type drones and advancing its submarine-based nuclear capabilities.

This Is No Longer Just About Defense

This warning must be taken seriously. It offers a rare and chilling insight into Kim Jong Un’s evolving strategy. This is no longer about deterring invasion—it is about preparing for offensive military action. Kim is betting that Russian-backed military superiority will allow him to coerce, fracture, and eventually dominate the South—just as his grandfather tried to do during the Korean War with Soviet support.

His toolkit now includes:

• Nuclear blackmail

• Cyber warfare

• Massed drone strikes

• Political subversion through pro-North Korea groups in the South

It would be dangerously naïve to view this as merely defensive posturing. Kim is laying the groundwork for future conflict, likely to be timed with moments of internal division or perceived weakness in the South.

Conclusion: A Ticking Clock

Under South Korea’s new administration—one inclined toward engagement and appeasement of the Kim regime—Kim Jong Un is likely to grow even bolder. He may escalate military pressure to extract key demands—most importantly, the withdrawal of U.S. troops, which would remove the greatest obstacle to his unification-by-force strategy.

If South Korea and its allies fail to grasp the full scope of Kim's ambitions, they may soon find themselves not just facing provocation—but a full-scale conflict, much like the wars now erupting in other parts of the world.

Author: B.J. Choi, founder of NVNK, obtained his Master's degree in Asian Studies from the George Washington University. He previously worked for the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (WWICS), and Cornerstone Ministries International (CMI) on North Korea issues.