Deploying NK Troops to Russia: A Catalyst for Regime Collapse?

Key Insights

• Troop Breakdown– North Korean soldiers in Russia face extreme fear, ideological instability, and potential defections, alarming the regime.

  
  

• Growing Family Resentment – Parents, fearful for their children’s lives, are increasingly outraged, spreading anti-regime sentiment.

  
  

• Military & Diplomatic Weakness – High casualties and poor performance undermine North Korea’s military credibility and strain its alliance with Russia.

  
  

• Regime Instability – Rising public dissent, bribery to avoid deployment, and military failures are weakening Kim Jong Un’s grip on power.

North Korea’s decision to deploy troops to Russia has ignited significant unrest within North Korean society. Reports indicate that soldiers sent to the battlefield are suffering extreme fear, psychological distress, and ideological instability. Meanwhile, the families of these troops are growing increasingly discontented with the Kim regime. If this discontent continues to spread, it could become the very force that leads to the collapse of the North Korean regime.

The Mental and Moral Breakdown of North Korean Troops

According to recent reports by Daily NK, the Kim regime is deeply concerned about the deteriorating mental state of North Korean soldiers deployed to Russia. These troops, many of whom are in their late teens or early twenties, have been subjected to rigorous ideological training designed to instill unwavering loyalty to the state. However, the stark reality of war has proven far more terrifying than their training could have ever prepared them for.

Reports suggest that as casualties rise, these soldiers are exhibiting signs of ideological instability, cultural adjustment difficulties, and an overwhelming fear of death. The situation has worsened to the extent that North Korean officials now fear that some of these troops could betray the regime. If such betrayals become widespread, the implications could be catastrophic for Kim Jong Un’s rule.

Additionally, the Russian military’s growing frustration with North Korean troops—due to their inexperience and fear—threatens to undermine military cooperation between the two nations. If Russia views North Korean soldiers as liabilities rather than assets, Kim’s attempt to leverage military support for economic and diplomatic gains may backfire.

Rising Discontent Among Families and Society

The deployment of troops to Russia has also sown deep anxiety among the families of North Korean soldiers. Parents who once took pride in their children's military service are now experiencing immense fear and uncertainty. The Daily NK has reported that some families have lost communication with their sons, and as news of casualties spreads, their resentment toward the regime is growing rapidly.

Despite the regime’s efforts to censor information, reports of North Korean soldiers being killed or captured in Ukraine have started to trickle into North Korean society. At the North Korea-China border, where outside information occasionally seeps in, parents are particularly vocal in their discontent. The fear that their children may never return from Russia has caused a significant shift in public sentiment.

As more parents express their bitterness and outrage, this dissatisfaction could escalate into mass dissent. Historically, the Kim regime has relied on military service as a means of controlling and indoctrinating its youth. However, if military service is increasingly seen as a death sentence rather than an honor, it may lead to a significant decline in public trust in the regime.

A Symbol of Military and Political Weakness

The high casualties among North Korean troops have already forced a strategic withdrawal from the frontline Kursk region in mid-January. The South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS) estimates that of the 11,000 North Korean troops deployed to Russia, around 300 have been killed, and approximately 2,700 others have been injured. Some experts suggest that as many as 50% of North Korean troops may have been wounded or killed due to Russia’s attrition warfare strategy.

This level of loss is unprecedented for a North Korean foreign military operation and has serious repercussions for domestic stability. The deaths of soldiers have begun to fuel resistance against the regime. Reports indicate that parents are attempting to bribe military officials with cash and goods to keep their children from being drafted. This act of desperation underscores the growing fear and rejection of the state’s militarization policies.

Moreover, the financial strain caused by these bribes could deepen economic inequality in an already fragile economy. Families with connections and wealth may be able to protect their children from deployment, while poorer families have no choice but to send their sons to a war they may not survive. Such disparities could further intensify class resentment and weaken the regime’s grip on power.

The Potential for Regime Collapse

Kim Jong Un may have believed that sending troops to Russia would bolster the military alliance between North Korea and Russia and gain economic benefits. However, the reality is proving to be quite the opposite. As news of the high casualties circulates, the Kim regime faces growing domestic discontent from multiple angles: ideologically shaken soldiers, grieving and outraged parents, and an increasingly unstable military apparatus.

The deployment of North Korean troops to Russia has exposed the regime’s vulnerabilities on an unprecedented scale. If the trend of internal dissatisfaction continues, it could lead to unprecedented protests, military desertions, and ultimately, the collapse of the Kim regime.

The question is no longer whether Kim Jong Un can suppress this dissent, but how long he can hold on before his power structure crumbles under the weight of its own contradictions. The Kim regime is not just sending its soldiers to die in a foreign war—it may be sending itself toward an inevitable reckoning.

Author: B.J. Choi, founder of NVNK, obtained his Master's degree in Asian Studies from the George Washington University. He previously worked for the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (WWICS) on North Korea issues.