What Choe’s Power Network Means to the Fate of Kim Jong Un

Explore how Choe Ryong Hae’s expanding influence is shaking the foundations of North Korea’s power structure—and what it means for the fate of the Kim regime.

Key Insights

• A new South Korean report reveals that Choe Ryong Hae has built a powerful informal network within North Korea’s military, party, and government, posing a direct challenge to Kim Jong Un’s centralized authority.

  
  

• The sidelining of prominent figures like Kim Yo Jong and Jo Yong Won suggests an internal power shift, with Choe’s growing influence likely displacing even Kim’s closest confidants.

  
  

• Facing external pressures, Kim Jong Un appears increasingly dependent on Choe for regime stability—echoing the same dynamics that led to past purges and internal betrayals.

  
  

• By empowering a rival power center, Kim is undermining the regime’s foundational structure. The unchecked rise of Choe’s network could trigger a dual-power crisis, leading to the regime’s eventual collapse from within.

A newly released South Korean report has shed fresh light on the most significant power shift inside North Korea in a decade—one that may ultimately bring down the very regime it seeks to stabilize.

Titled “Changes in the Power Structure Among North Korean Elites and Their Implications,” the report by Lee Seung-Yeol, a legislative researcher at South Korea’s National Assembly Research Service (NARS), reveals how Choe Ryong Hae, North Korea’s parliamentary chief and longtime political survivor, has built an informal but expansive power network that rivals—even threatens—Kim Jong Un’s centralized rule.

Choe’s Shadow Empire

Since taking control of the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD) in 2017, Choe has reportedly inserted loyalists across North Korea’s military, party, and government apparatus. These placements have eroded the internal checks and balances that once prevented any single faction from amassing too much influence—a hallmark of the regime’s classic survival strategy.

The mysterious sidelining of key figures—Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un’s powerful sister, and Jo Yong Won, his once-prominent confidant—suggests that a power struggle is unfolding at the top. Just recently, Jo Yong Won, a senior party secretary long regarded as one of Kim’s closest aides, has not appeared in public for nearly two months—likely a casualty of Choe Ryong Hae’s silent but strategic rise.

A Dangerous Reliance

The young and relatively inexperienced 41-year-old Kim Jong Un now faces unprecedented challenges on every front: crippling sanctions, economic stagnation, the growing influence of South Korean content among youth, rising public anger over troop deployments to Russia, and a rapidly shifting global order.

North Korea’s dynastic system was never designed to accommodate a secondary power center. It was this very principle that led to the brutal execution of Kim’s uncle, Jang Song Thaek, in 2013. Jang's rising influence as a “second-in-command” was seen as an existential threat to the Supreme Leader model.

Today, the parallels are stark. Choe’s expanding influence echoes the very dynamics that led to Jang’s fall. But unlike then, Kim now finds himself trapped—weakened by external pressures and unable to purge his most competent subordinate without risking total regime collapse.

The Seeds of Instability

The NARS report warns that Choe’s informal network is undermining the regime’s structural stability. By centralizing power in Choe’s hands while abandoning the system of elite balance, Kim is sowing the seeds of instability in his own regime.

Conclusion: The Beginning of the End?

From the growing influence of South Korean content to rising public unrest, Kim Jong Un is grappling with a wave of internal challenges that threaten the stability of his regime from within. Now, on top of that, by entrusting the regime’s future to a powerful subordinate, he may be introducing the greatest threat yet to its survival. What may appear to be a tactic for short-term stability could ultimately pave the way for long-term disintegration.

There is no indication that Choe Ryong Hae is openly rebelling against Kim Jong Un—at least not yet. But if Kim fails to control Choe’s growing influence within the regime, the fate of the Kim dynasty may be determined not by foreign invasion or popular uprising, but by an implosion from within.

Author: B.J. Choi, founder of NVNK, obtained his Master's degree in Asian Studies from the George Washington University. He previously worked for the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (WWICS), and Cornerstone Ministries International (CMI) on North Korea issues.